WASHINGTON -- The U.S. Department of the Treasury today announced its current estimates of privately-held net marketable borrowing[1] for the January – March 2023 and April – June 2023 quarters.[2]
- During the January – March 2023 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $932 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-March cash balance of $500 billion.[3] The borrowing estimate is $353 billion higher than announced in October 2022, primarily due to the lower beginning-of-quarter cash balance ($253 billion), and projections of lower receipts and higher outlays ($93 billion).
- During the April – June 2023 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $278 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-June cash balance of $550 billion.3
During the October – December 2022 quarter, Treasury borrowed $373 billion in privately-held net marketable debt and ended the quarter with a cash balance of $447 billion. In October 2022, Treasury estimated borrowing of $550 billion and assumed an end-of-December cash balance of $700 billion. The $177 billion difference in privately-held net market borrowing resulted primarily from the lower end-of-quarter cash balance, somewhat offset by lower net fiscal flows.[4]
Additional financing details relating to Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding will be released at 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday, February 1, 2023.
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[1] Privately-held net marketable borrowing excludes rollovers (auction “add-ons”) of Treasury securities held in the Federal Reserve System Open Market Account (SOMA) but includes financing required due to SOMA redemptions. Secondary market purchases of Treasury securities by SOMA do not directly change net privately-held marketable borrowing but, all else equal, when the securities mature and assuming the Federal Reserve does not redeem any maturing securities, would increase the amount of cash raised for a given privately-held auction size by increasing the SOMA “add-on” amount.
[2] These borrowing estimates are based upon current law.
[3] The end-of-March and end-of-June cash balances assume enactment of a debt limit suspension or increase. Treasury’s cash balance may be lower than assumed depending on several factors, including constraints related to the debt limit. If Treasury’s cash balance for the end of either quarter is lower than assumed, and assuming no changes in the forecast of fiscal activity, Treasury would expect that borrowing would be lower by the corresponding amount(s).
