The Office of Tax Analysis (OTA) analyzes the effects of the existing tax law and alternative tax programs and prepares a variety of background papers, position papers, policy memoranda, and analytical reports on economic aspects of domestic and international tax policy.
OTA is responsible for official Administration estimates of all Federal receipts included in the President's Budget and Mid-Session Review, and revenue estimates for actual and proposed tax legislation, earmarked revenue allocated to various trust funds, Treasury cash management decisions, and the Tax Expenditure Budget. OTA develops and operates several major microsimulation models and maintains large statistical databases to analyze the economic, distributional, and revenue effects of alternative tax proposals and tax systems. Many of the large microdata files used in OTA's models are developed from samples of tax returns prepared by the IRS Statistics of Income Division under the Office's direction. Additional OTA staff publications as of June 2019.
Technical and Working Papers
Distributional Analysis of the U.S. Tax System
- Summary of Treasury’s Distribution Analysis (November 2015)
- Distribution of Income by Source
- Distribution of Tax Burden, Current Law
- Distribution of Tax Burden, Fully Phased-in Current Law
- Distribution of Tax Burden, Administration Policy
- Distribution of Tax Burden , Fully Phased-in Administration Policy
- Sources of Variation in Average Tax Rates (November 2015)
- Variation in Average Tax Rates at Selected Income Levels, Current Law
- 2015, revised (August 2015)
- 2016 (August 2015)
- Variation in Average Tax Rates at Selected Income Levels, Administration Policy
- 2016 (August 2015)
- Number and Share of Families Paying Taxes, Current Law
Distribution of Selected Tax Expenditures
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Selected Credits, Deductions, and Exclusions
- 2015, revised [excel] (March 2016)
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Selected Retirement Savings
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2015, revised [excel] (March 2016)
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Distribution of Premium Tax Credit [excel] (January 2017)
Average and Marginal Tax Rates
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Average Effective Federal Corporate Tax Rates (April 2016)
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Effective Marginal Tax Rates on New Investments (August 2014)
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Marginal Income Tax Rates by Income Source [excel] (August 2015)
Key Family and Education Tax Policies and Proposals
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Tax Rates and Tax Support for Families: 2019 (May 2019)
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Tax Rates and Tax Support for Families: 2015 (July 2015)
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Families Benefiting from ARRA: 2016 [excel] (July 2015)
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Child Care Tax Benefits: 2016 [excel] (July 2015)
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Education Tax Benefits: 2016 [excel] (January 2015)
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American Opportunity Tax Credit by State: 2012 [excel] (April 2015)
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The Taxation of Married Couples: 2016 [excel] (November 2015)
Health Tax Provisions and Analysis
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Treasury’s Baseline Estimates of Health Coverage (December 2016)
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Table 1, Types of Coverage, 2018 [excel] (December 2016)
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Table 2, Employer-Sponsored Coverage, 2018 [excel] (December 2016)
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Table 3, Premium Tax Credit, 2018 [excel] (December 2016)
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Tables 1 – 3, Types of Coverage, ESI and PTC, 2018 (December 2016)
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Health Savings Accounts, 2014 [excel] (January 2017)
Special Studies in Tax Analysis
- Taxes Paid on Long Term Capital Gains: 1977-2014 [excel] (December 2016)
- Tax Expenditures under the Estate Tax (October 2016)
- Research And Experimentation (R&E) Credit (October 2016)
- The Tax Expenditure For Life Insurance Inside Buildup (September 2016)
- Revenue Consequences of 162(m) (September 2016)
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Federal Insurance Contributions Act (FICA) Tip Credit (February 2016)
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Like-Kind Exchanges: Description of Law and Current Data (September 2014)
- Updated Estimates of the Tax Expenditure for the Step Up in Basis at Death (August 2014)