Office of Tax Analysis

The Office of Tax Analysis (OTA) analyzes the effects of the existing tax law and alternative tax programs and prepares a variety of background papers, position papers, policy memoranda, and analytical reports on economic aspects of domestic and international tax policy.

(Scroll down for average and marginal tax rates, advancing the child credit, key family and education tax policies and proposals, health tax provisions and analysis, special studies in tax analysis, working papers and technical papers, and staff publications.)

Distributional Analysis of the U.S. Tax System

Treasury estimates the current law distribution of income and taxes as part of the Budget baseline exercise.  Current law income and tax burdens are estimates of income and tax burdens for the first year of the Budget period, assuming baseline tax law and Administration forecast of income and other economic variables.

Distribution of Selected Tax Expenditures

Average and Marginal Tax Rates

advancing the child credit

Many families will receive up to half of their child credit payments for taxable year 2021 as an advance during the second half of 2020.  Disbursals and other information are reported here: 

  • Advance Child Tax Credit Payments Disbursed each Month, by State
  • Estimated Counts of Children not Claimed for Child Credit but Found on Form 1095 by ZIP Code, Tax Year 2019 (June 2021)

Key Family and Education Tax Policies and Proposals

Health Tax Provisions and Analysis

Special Studies in Tax Analysis

Technical PAPERS and Working Papers

The OTA Working Papers Series presents original research by the staff of the Office of Tax Analysis. The OTA Technical Papers Series presents documentation of the models, datasets, and methods developed by staff and used for policy analysis and estimates. The papers are intended to generate discussion and critical comment while informing and improving the quality of the analysis conducted by the Office. The papers are works in progress and subject to revision. Views and opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent official Treasury positions or policy. Comments are welcome, as are suggestions for improvements, and should be directed to the authors. OTA Papers may be quoted without additional permission.

Staff Publications

OTA economists are active researchers.  A list of OTA Staff publications as of December 2020 is available here

Additional Tax Policy Work by OTA