The Office of Tax Analysis (OTA) analyzes the effects of the existing tax law and alternative tax programs and prepares a variety of background papers, position papers, policy memoranda, and analytical reports on economic aspects of domestic and international tax policy.
Announcement: Dr. Gerald Auten has been named the first Stanley Surrey Senior Economist for Tax. Read more here.
(Scroll down for distribution of selected parameters average and marginal tax rates, advancing the child credit, key family and education tax policies and proposals, health tax provisions and analysis, special studies in tax analysis, working papers and technical papers, and staff publications.)
Distributional Analysis of the U.S. Tax System
Treasury estimates the current law distribution of income and taxes as part of the Budget baseline exercise. Current law income and tax burdens are estimates of income and tax burdens for the first year of the Budget period, assuming baseline tax law and Administration forecast of income and other economic variables. Technical Paper 8 provides an in-depth description of the methodology.
- Graphs of Distribution of Current Law Tax Burden and Income by Source (November 2023)
- Summary of Treasury’s Distribution Methodology (May 2021)
Distribution of Tax Burden, Current Law
Distribution of Income by Source
- Sources of Variation in Average Tax Rates (November 2015)
Variation in Average Tax Rates at Selected Income Levels, Current Law
- 2016 (August 2015)
- 2015, revised (August 2015)
Number and Share of Families Paying Taxes, Current Law
Distribution of Selected Tax Expenditures
- Distribution of Premium Tax Credit [excel] (January 2017)
Average and Marginal Tax Rates
The tables below show the Effective Marginal Tax Rates (EMTRs) and Effective Average Tax Rates (EATRs) for new investment for OECD Countries. These effective tax rates include only corporate level taxes. Technical Paper 9 provides an in-depth description of the methodology used to calculate the effective rates. The number of OECD countries increased from 35 in 2017 to 37 in 2021.
The tables below show the EMTRs and EATRs for the US for select years. These effective rates include only corporate level taxes. Technical Paper 10 provides an in-depth description of our current cost of capital model methodology.
Advancing the child credit
Many families received up to half of their child tax credit for taxable year 2021 through advance payments made during the second half of 2021. Monthly disbursals and other information are reported here:
Advance Child Tax Credit Payments Disbursed each Month, by State Reported in Month of Disbursal:
Cumulative Advance Payments Received During 2021: Readers are encouraged to view the more comprehensive payment information—classified separately by Adjusted Gross Income, State, and Filing Status—produced in 2022 by the Statistics of Income Division of the IRS.
Estimated Counts of Children not Claimed for Child Credit but Found on Form 1095 by ZIP Code, Tax Year 2019 (June 2021)
Key Family and Education Tax Policies and Proposals
- Families Benefitting from Major Family and Education Tax Provisions
- Under Current Law for 2025 (May, 2024)
- Under Current Law for 2023, Summary (June, 2022)
- Under Current Law for 2022 (August, 2021)
- Under Administration's Budget for 2022 (August, 2021)
- Current Law for 2019 [excel] (May 2019)
- Families Benefiting from ARRA: 2016 [excel] (July 2015)
- Tax Rates and Tax Support for Families (Skylines)
- Under Current Law for 2021 (October 2021)
- Under Current Law for 2019 (May 2019)
- Under Current Law for 2015 (July 2015)
- Child Care Tax Benefits
- Under Current Law for 2020 (January 2020)
- Under Current Law for 2016 [excel] (July 2015)
- Education Tax Benefits
- Under Current Law for 2023 (June 2022)
- Under Current Law for 2016 [excel] (January 2015)
- American Opportunity Tax Credit by State: 2012 [excel] (April 2015)
- The Taxation of Married Couples: 2016 [excel] (November 2015)
- Related working papers:
- Working Paper 119 (May, 2019) describes the changes under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017
- Working Paper 112 (November 2016) describes the tax support for families with children and explores an approach to simplification.
Health Tax Provisions and Analysis
- Treasury's Baseline Estimates of Health Coverage, FY 2020 [excel] (September 2019)
- Treasury's Baseline Estimates of Health Coverage, FY 2019 [excel] Revised (September 2019)
- Treasury's Baseline Estimates of Health Coverage, FY 2019 (April 2019)
- Treasury's Baseline Estimates of Health Coverage Methodology and Tables (December 2016)
- Methodology (December 2016)
- Table 1, Types of Coverage, 2018 [excel] (December 2016)
- Table 2, Employer-Sponsored Coverage, 2018 [excel] (December 2016)
- Table 3, Premium Tax Credit, 2018 [excel] (December 2016)
- Tables 1 – 3, Types of Coverage, ESI and PTC, 2018 (December 2016)
- Health Savings Accounts, 2014 [excel] (January 2017)
Special Studies in Tax Analysis
- Affordable Care Act Marketplace Coverage for the Self-Employed and Small Business Owners (September 2023)
- Number of People Who Have Ever Enrolled in ACA Marketplace Coverage, 2014-2024 (September 2023)
- Section 45S, Employment Credit for Family and Medical Leave, Claims, Counts and Dollars 2020 (October 2023)
- Self-Employed Workers and Small Business Owners with Marketplace Health Insurance Coverage in 2021, Ages 21-64 [excel] (August 2022)
- Charitable gifts received by 501(c)(3) Organizations (March 2020)
- Taxes Paid on Long Term Capital Gains: 1977-2014 [excel] (December 2016)
- Tax Expenditures under the Estate Tax (October 2016)
- Research And Experimentation (R&E) Credit (October 2016)
- The Tax Expenditure For Life Insurance Inside Buildup (September 2016)
- Revenue Consequences of 162(m) (September 2016)
- Federal Insurance Contributions Act (FICA) Tip Credit (February 2016)
- Like-Kind Exchanges: Description of Law and Current Data (September 2014)
- Updated Estimates of the Tax Expenditure for the Step Up in Basis at Death (August 2014)
Technical PAPERS and Working Papers
Staff Publications
Additional Tax Policy Work by OTA