Office of Tax Analysis

The Office of Tax Analysis (OTA) analyzes the effects of the existing tax law and alternative tax programs and prepares a variety of background papers, position papers, policy memoranda, and analytical reports on economic aspects of domestic and international tax policy.

OTA is responsible for official Administration estimates of all Federal receipts included in the President's Budget and Mid-Session Review, and revenue estimates for actual and proposed tax legislation, earmarked revenue allocated to various trust funds, Treasury cash management decisions, and the Tax Expenditure Budget. OTA develops and operates several major microsimulation models and maintains large statistical databases to analyze the economic, distributional, and revenue effects of alternative tax proposals and tax systems. Many of the large microdata files used in OTA's models are developed from samples of tax returns prepared by the IRS Statistics of Income Division under the Office's direction. A list of OTA Staff publications as of December 2019 is available here


Technical PAPERS and Working Papers

The OTA Working Papers Series presents original research by the staff of the Office of Tax Analysis. The OTA Technical Papers Series presents documentation of the models, datasets, and methods developed by staff and used for policy analysis and estimates. The papers are intended to generate discussion and critical comment while informing and improving the quality of the analysis conducted by the Office. The papers are works in progress and subject to revision. Views and opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent official Treasury positions or policy. Comments are welcome, as are suggestions for improvements, and should be directed to the authors. OTA Papers may be quoted without additional permission.

Distributional Analysis of the U.S. Tax System

Distribution of Selected Tax Expenditures

Average and Marginal Tax Rates

Key Family and Education Tax Policies and Proposals

Health Tax Provisions and Analysis

Special Studies in Tax Analysis