Office of Tax Analysis

The Office of Tax Analysis (OTA) analyzes the effects of the existing tax law and alternative tax programs and prepares a variety of background papers, position papers, policy memoranda, and analytical reports on economic aspects of domestic and international tax policy.

Announcement: Dr. Gerald Auten has been named the first Stanley Surrey Senior Economist for Tax. Read more here.

(Scroll down for distribution of selected parameters average and marginal tax rates, advancing the child credit, key family and education tax policies and proposals, health tax provisions and analysis, special studies in tax analysis, working papers and technical papers, and staff publications.)

Distributional Analysis of the U.S. Tax System

Treasury estimates the current law distribution of income and taxes as part of the Budget baseline exercise.  Current law income and tax burdens are estimates of income and tax burdens for the first year of the Budget period, assuming baseline tax law and Administration forecast of income and other economic variables. Technical Paper 8 provides an in-depth description of the methodology.

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Distribution of Selected Tax Expenditures

Average and Marginal Tax Rates

The tables below show the Effective Marginal Tax Rates (EMTRs) and Effective Average Tax Rates (EATRs) for new investment for OECD Countries. These effective tax rates include only corporate level taxes. Technical Paper 9 provides an in-depth description of the methodology used to calculate the effective rates. The number of OECD countries increased from 35 in 2017 to 37 in 2021.

The tables below show the EMTRs and EATRs for the US for select years. These effective rates include only corporate level taxes. Technical Paper 10 provides an in-depth description of our current cost of capital model methodology.

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Advancing the child credit

Many families received up to half of their child tax credit for taxable year 2021 through advance payments made during the second half of 2021.  Monthly disbursals and other information are reported here: 

  • Advance Child Tax Credit Payments Disbursed each Month, by State Reported in Month of Disbursal:

  • Cumulative Advance Payments Received During 2021: Readers are encouraged to view the more comprehensive payment information—classified separately by Adjusted Gross Income, State, and Filing Status—produced in 2022 by the Statistics of Income Division of the IRS.

  • Estimated Counts of Children not Claimed for Child Credit but Found on Form 1095 by ZIP Code, Tax Year 2019 (June 2021)


Key Family and Education Tax Policies and Proposals


Health Tax Provisions and Analysis


Special Studies in Tax Analysis

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Technical PAPERS and Working Papers

The OTA Working Papers Series presents original research by the staff of the Office of Tax Analysis. The OTA Technical Papers Series presents documentation of the models, datasets, and methods developed by staff and used for policy analysis and estimates. The papers are intended to generate discussion and critical comment while informing and improving the quality of the analysis conducted by the Office. The papers are works in progress and subject to revision. Views and opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent official Treasury positions or policy. Comments are welcome, as are suggestions for improvements, and should be directed to the authors. OTA Papers may be quoted without additional permission.

Staff Publications

OTA economists are active researchers.  A list of OTA Staff publications as of November 2022 is available here

Additional Tax Policy Work by OTA

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