The Office of Tax Analysis (OTA) analyzes the effects of the existing tax law and alternative tax programs and prepares a variety of background papers, position papers, policy memoranda, and analytical reports on economic aspects of domestic and international tax policy.
(Scroll down for average and marginal tax rates, key family and education tax policies and proposals, health tax provisions and analysis, special studies in tax analysis, working papers and technical papers, and staff publications.)
Distributional Analysis of the U.S. Tax System
Treasury estimates the current law distribution of income and taxes as part of the Budget baseline exercise. Current law income and tax burdens are estimates of income and tax burdens for the first year of the Budget period, assuming baseline tax law and Administration forecast of income and other economic variables.
- Summary of Treasury’s Distribution Methodology (May 2021)
- Distribution of Income by Source
- 2022 Distribution of Income [excel] (April 2021, posted July 2021)
- 2021 Distribution of Income [excel] (March 2020, posted July 2021)
- 2020 Distribution of Income [excel] (March 2019, posted July 2021)
- 2019 Distribution of Income [excel] (April 2018)
- 2018 Distribution of Income [excel] (May, 2021)
- 2017 Distribution of Income [excel] (March 2016)
- 2016 Distribution of Income [excel] (July 2015)
- 2015 Distribution of Income, revised [excel] (July 2015)
- Distribution of Tax Burden, Current Law
- 2022 Distribution of Tax Burden [excel] (April 2021, posted July 2021)
- 2021 Distribution of Tax Burden [excel] (March 2020, posted July 2021)
- 2020 Distribution of Tax Burden [excel] (March 2019, posted July 2021)
- 2019 Distribution of Tax Burden [excel] (April 2018)
- 2018 Distribution of Tax Burden [excel] (January 2017)
- 2017 Distribution of Tax Burden [excel] (March 2016)
- 2016 Distribution of Tax Burden [excel] (July 2015)
- 2015 Distribution of Tax Burden, revised [excel] (July 2015)
- Distribution of Tax Burden, Fully Phased-in Current Law
- Distribution of Tax Burden, Administration Policy
- Distribution of Tax Burden , Fully Phased-in Administration Policy
- Sources of Variation in Average Tax Rates (November 2015)
- Variation in Average Tax Rates at Selected Income Levels, Current Law
- 2016 (August 2015)
- 2015, revised (August 2015)
- Variation in Average Tax Rates at Selected Income Levels, Administration Policy
- 2016 (August 2015)
- Number and Share of Families Paying Taxes, Current Law
Distribution of Selected Tax Expenditures
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Selected Credits, Deductions, and Exclusions
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Selected Retirement Savings
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2015, revised [excel] (March 2016)
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Distribution of Premium Tax Credit [excel] (January 2017)
Average and Marginal Tax Rates
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Average Effective Federal Corporate Tax Rates (April 2016)
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Marginal Income Tax Rates by Income Source [excel] (August 2015)
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Effective Marginal Tax Rates on New Investments (August 2014)
Key Family and Education Tax Policies and Proposals
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Advance Child Tax Credit Payments Disbursed July 2021, by State (July 2021)
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Estimated Counts of Children not Claimed for Child Credit but found on Form 1095 by ZIP Code, Tax Year 2019 (June 2021)
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Tax Rates and Tax Support for Families: 2019 (May 2019)
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Tax Rates and Tax Support for Families: 2015 (July 2015)
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Families Benefiting from ARRA: 2016 [excel] (July 2015)
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Child Care Tax Benefits: 2016 [excel] (July 2015)
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Education Tax Benefits: 2016 [excel] (January 2015)
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The Taxation of Married Couples: 2016 [excel] (November 2015)
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American Opportunity Tax Credit by State: 2012 [excel] (April 2015)
Health Tax Provisions and Analysis
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Treasury's Baseline Estimates of Health Coverage, FY 2020 [excel] (September 2019)
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Treasury's Baseline Estimates of Health Coverage, FY 2019 [excel] Revised (September 2019)
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Treasury's Baseline Estimates of Health Coverage, FY 2019 (April 2019)
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Treasury’s Baseline Estimates of Health Coverage (December 2016)
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Tables 1 – 3, Types of Coverage, ESI and PTC, 2018 (December 2016)
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Health Savings Accounts, 2014 [excel] (January 2017)
Special Studies in Tax Analysis
- Charitable gifts received by 501(c)(3) Organizations (March 2020)
- Taxes Paid on Long Term Capital Gains: 1977-2014 [excel] (December 2016)
- Tax Expenditures under the Estate Tax (October 2016)
- Research And Experimentation (R&E) Credit (October 2016)
- The Tax Expenditure For Life Insurance Inside Buildup (September 2016)
- Revenue Consequences of 162(m) (September 2016)
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Federal Insurance Contributions Act (FICA) Tip Credit (February 2016)
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Like-Kind Exchanges: Description of Law and Current Data (September 2014)
- Updated Estimates of the Tax Expenditure for the Step Up in Basis at Death (August 2014)
Technical PAPERS and Working Papers
The OTA Working Papers Series presents original research by the staff of the Office of Tax Analysis. The OTA Technical Papers Series presents documentation of the models, datasets, and methods developed by staff and used for policy analysis and estimates. The papers are intended to generate discussion and critical comment while informing and improving the quality of the analysis conducted by the Office. The papers are works in progress and subject to revision. Views and opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent official Treasury positions or policy. Comments are welcome, as are suggestions for improvements, and should be directed to the authors. OTA Papers may be quoted without additional permission.
Staff Publications
OTA economists are active researchers. A list of OTA Staff publications as of December 2020 is available here
Additional Tax Policy Work by OTA