WASHINGTON -- The U.S. Department of the Treasury today announced its current estimates of privately-held net marketable borrowing[1] for the January – March 2024 and April – June 2024 quarters.
- During the January – March 2024 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $760 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-March cash balance of $750 billion.[2] The borrowing estimate is $55 billion lower than announced in October 2023, largely due to projections of higher net fiscal flows and a higher beginning of quarter cash balance.[3]
- During the April – June 2024 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $202 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-June cash balance of $750 billion.[4]
During the October – December 2023 quarter, Treasury borrowed $776 billion in privately-held net marketable debt and ended the quarter with a cash balance of $769 billion. In October 2023, Treasury estimated borrowing of $776 billion and assumed an end-of-December cash balance of $750 billion. There was no change in privately-held net market borrowing although the ending cash balance was $19 billion higher due primarily to other sources of financing including lower than projected discount on marketable borrowing.
Additional financing details relating to Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding will be released at 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday, January 31, 2024.
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[1] Privately-held net marketable borrowing excludes rollovers (auction “add-ons”) of Treasury securities held in the Federal Reserve System Open Market Account (SOMA) but includes financing required due to SOMA redemptions. Secondary market purchases of Treasury securities by SOMA do not directly change net privately-held marketable borrowing but, all else equal, when the securities mature and assuming the Federal Reserve does not redeem any maturing securities, would increase the amount of cash raised for a given privately-held auction size by increasing the SOMA “add-on” amount.
[2]
[3] $39 billion of SOMA Treasury holdings dated March 31, 2024, are projected to be redeemed on April 1, 2024. These redemptions are expected to be considered by the Federal Reserve as part of the March redemption cap but are not reflected in the $760 billion in expected borrowing above, as the redemptions will settle in April.
[4] $23 billion of SOMA Treasury holdings dated June 30, 2024, are projected to be redeemed on July 1, 2024. These redemptions are expected to be considered by the Federal Reserve as part of the June redemption cap but are not reflected in the $202 billion in expected borrowing above, as the redemptions will settle in July.