WASHINGTON -- The U.S. Department of the Treasury today announced its current estimates of privately-held net marketable borrowing[1] for the January – March 2025 and April – June 2025 quarters.
- During the January – March 2025 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $815 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-March cash balance of $850 billion.[2],[3] The borrowing estimate is $9 billion lower than announced in October 2024, largely due to a higher beginning-of-quarter cash balance, partially offset by lower net cash flows.
- During the April – June 2025 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $123 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-June cash balance of $850 billion.3
During the October – December 2024 quarter, Treasury borrowed $620 billion in privately-held net marketable debt and ended the quarter with a cash balance of $722 billion. In October 2024, Treasury estimated borrowing of $546 billion and assumed an end-of-December cash balance of $700 billion. Privately-held net marketable borrowing was $74 billion higher largely because of lower net cash flows and a higher ending cash balance.
Additional financing details relating to Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding will be released at 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday, February 5, 2025.
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[1] Privately-held net marketable borrowing excludes rollovers (auction “add-ons”) of Treasury securities held in the SOMA but includes financing required due to SOMA redemptions. Secondary market purchases of Treasury securities by SOMA do not directly change net privately-held marketable borrowing but, all else equal, when the securities mature and assuming the Federal Reserve does not redeem any maturing securities, would increase the amount of cash raised for a given privately-held auction size by increasing the SOMA “add-on” amount. Additionally, buybacks are not expected to significantly affect privately-held net marketable borrowing as new issuance replaces securities that are bought back.
| Cash Balance | October - December Quarter | January - March Quarter | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assumptions | Prior | Current | Change | Prior | Current | Change |
| Opening Balance | $886 | $886 | $0 | $700 | $722 | $22 |
| Closing Balance | $700 | $722 | $22 | $850 | $850 | $0 |
| Impact on Borrowing | -$186 | -$164 | $22 | $150 | $128 | -$22 |
[3] The end-of-March and end-of-June cash balances assume enactment of a debt limit suspension or increase. Treasury’s cash balance may be lower than assumed depending on several factors, including constraints related to the debt limit. If Treasury’s cash balance for the end of either quarter is lower than assumed, and assuming no changes in the forecast of fiscal activity, Treasury would expect that borrowing would be lower by the corresponding amount(s).