WASHINGTON -- The U.S. Department of the Treasury today announced its current estimates of privately-held net marketable borrowing[1] for the April – June 2025 and July – September 2025 quarters.
- During the April – June 2025 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $514 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-June cash balance of $850 billion.[2],[3] The borrowing estimate is $391 billion higher than announced in February 2025, primarily due to the lower beginning-of-quarter cash balance and projected lower net cash flows, partially offset by lower Federal Reserve System Open Market Account (SOMA) redemptions ($60 billion). Excluding the lower than assumed beginning-of-quarter cash balance, the current quarter borrowing estimate is $53 billion lower than announced in February.
- During the July – September 2025 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $554 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-September cash balance of $850 billion.3
- During the January – March 2025 quarter, Treasury borrowed $369 billion in privately-held net marketable debt and ended the quarter with a cash balance of $406 billion. In February 2025, Treasury estimated borrowing of $815 billion and assumed an end-of-March cash balance of $850 billion. The $446 billion difference in privately-held net market borrowing resulted primarily from the lower end-of-quarter cash balance. Excluding the lower than assumed end-of-quarter cash balance, actual borrowing was $2 billion lower than announced in February.
Additional financing details relating to Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding will be released at 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday, April 30, 2025.
###
[1] Privately-held net marketable borrowing excludes rollovers (auction “add-ons”) of Treasury securities held in the SOMA but includes financing required due to SOMA redemptions. Secondary market purchases of Treasury securities by SOMA do not directly change privately-held net marketable borrowing but, all else equal, when the securities mature and assuming the Federal Reserve does not redeem any maturing securities, would increase the amount of cash raised for a given privately-held auction size by increasing the SOMA “add-on” amount. Additionally, buybacks are not expected to significantly affect privately-held net marketable borrowing as new issuance replaces securities that are bought back.
2
| Cash Balance | January - March Quarter | April - June Quarter | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assumptions | Prior | Current | Change | Prior | Current | Change |
| Opening Balance | $722 | $722 | $0 | $850 | $406 | -$444 |
| Closing Balance | $850 | $406 | -$444 | $850 | $850 | $0 |
| Impact on Borrowing | $128 | -$316 | -$444 | $0 | $444 | $444 |
[3] The end-of-June and end-of-September cash balances assume enactment of a debt limit suspension or increase. Treasury’s cash balance may be lower than assumed depending on several factors, including constraints related to the debt limit. If Treasury’s cash balance for the end of either quarter is lower than assumed, and assuming no changes in the forecast of fiscal activity, Treasury would expect that borrowing would be lower by the corresponding amount(s).