WASHINGTON – The U.S. Department of the Treasury today announced its current estimates of privately-held net marketable borrowing[1] for the April – June 2024 and July – September 2024 quarters.
- During the April – June 2024 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $243 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-June cash balance of $750 billion.[2] The borrowing estimate is $41 billion higher than announced in January 2024, largely due to lower cash receipts, partially offset by a higher beginning of quarter cash balance.[3]
- During the July – September 2024 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $847 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-September cash balance of $850 billion.
During the January – March 2024 quarter, Treasury borrowed $748 billion in privately-held net marketable debt and ended the quarter with a cash balance of $775 billion. In January 2024, Treasury estimated borrowing of $760 billion and assumed an end-of-March cash balance of $750 billion. Privately-held net marketable borrowing was $12 billion lower largely because higher cash receipts and lower outlays were partially offset by a $25 billion higher ending cash balance.
Additional financing details relating to Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding will be released at 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday, May 1, 2024.
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[1] Privately-held net marketable borrowing excludes rollovers (auction “add-ons”) of Treasury securities held in the Federal Reserve System Open Market Account (SOMA) but includes financing required due to SOMA redemptions. Secondary market purchases of Treasury securities by SOMA do not directly change net privately-held marketable borrowing but, all else equal, when the securities mature and assuming the Federal Reserve does not redeem any maturing securities, would increase the amount of cash raised for a given privately-held auction size by increasing the SOMA “add-on” amount. Additionally, buybacks are not expected to significantly affect privately-held net marketable borrowing as new issuance replaces securities that are bought back.
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[3] $23 billion of SOMA Treasury holdings dated June 30, 2024, are projected to be redeemed on July 1, 2024. These redemptions are expected to be considered by the Federal Reserve as part of the June redemption cap but are not reflected in the $243 billion in expected borrowing above, as the redemptions will settle in July.