WASHINGTON -- The U.S. Department of the Treasury today announced its current estimates of privately-held net marketable borrowing[1] for the July – September 2025 and October – December 2025 quarters.
- During the July – September 2025 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $1.007 trillion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-September cash balance of $850 billion.[2] The borrowing estimate is $453 billion higher than announced in April 2025, primarily due to the lower beginning-of-quarter cash balance and projected lower net cash flows. Excluding the lower than assumed beginning-of-quarter cash balance, the current quarter borrowing estimate is $60 billion higher than announced in April.
- During the October – December 2025 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $590 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-December cash balance of $850 billion.
- During the April – June 2025 quarter, Treasury borrowed $65 billion in privately-held net marketable debt and ended the quarter with a cash balance of $457 billion. In April 2025, Treasury estimated borrowing of $514 billion and assumed an end-of-June cash balance of $850 billion. The $449 billion difference in privately-held net market borrowing resulted primarily from the lower end-of-quarter cash balance and higher net cash flows.Excluding the lower than assumed end-of-quarter cash balance, actual borrowing was $56 billion lower than announced in April.
Additional financing details relating to Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding will be released at 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday, July 30, 2025.
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[1] Privately-held net marketable borrowing excludes rollovers (auction “add-ons”) of Treasury securities held in the SOMA but includes financing required due to SOMA redemptions. Secondary market purchases of Treasury securities by SOMA do not directly change privately-held net marketable borrowing but, all else equal, when the securities mature and assuming the Federal Reserve does not redeem any maturing securities, would increase the amount of cash raised for a given privately-held auction size by increasing the SOMA “add-on” amount. Additionally, buybacks are not expected to significantly affect privately-held net marketable borrowing as new issuance replaces securities that are bought back.
2
| Cash Balance | April - June Quarter | July - September Quarter | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assumptions | Prior | Current | Change | Prior | Current | Change |
| Opening Balance | $406 | $406 | $0 | $850 | $457 | -$393 |
| Closing Balance | $850 | $457 | -$393 | $850 | $850 | $0 |
| Impact on Borrowing | $444 | $51 | -$393 | $0 | $393 | $393 |