Treasury announced its current estimates of net marketable financing for the April - June 2006 and July - September 2006 quarters:
- Over the April - June 2006 quarter, the Treasury expects to pay down $51 billion of net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-June cash balance of $25 billion. The current estimated paydown is $21 billion more than announced in January 2006. Cash receipts are expected to exceed cash outlays by $76 billion this quarter, resulting in a financing need that is $26 billion lower than our previous estimate and is the primary contributor to the increased paydown in net marketable debt.
- Over the July - September 2006 quarter, the Treasury expects to borrow $89 billion of net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-September cash balance of $30 billion.
During the January - March 2006 quarter, Treasury borrowed $158 billion of net marketable debt, ending with a cash balance of $8 billion on March 31. In January 2006, Treasury announced estimated net marketable borrowing of $188 billion, assuming an end-of-March cash balance of $15 billion. Cash outlays exceeded cash receipts by $173 billion, resulting in a financing need that was $20 billion less than previously assumed. The improvement in marketable borrowing was also attributable to a decrease in the cash balance over the quarter combined with higher cash from other sources. Borrowing during the January - March 2006 quarter was an all-time record, greater than the previous record of $146 billion in January - March 2004.
Since 1997, the average absolute forecast error in net borrowing of marketable debt for the current quarter is $9 billion and the average absolute forecast error for the end-of-quarter cash balance is $9 billion. Similarly, the average absolute forecast error for the following quarter is $31 billion and the average absolute forecast error for the end-of-quarter cash balance is $11 billion.
Additional financing details relating to Treasury's Quarterly Refunding will be released at 9:00 A.M. on Wednesday, May 3.