WASHINGTON -- The U.S. Department of the Treasury today announced its current estimates of privately-held net marketable borrowing[1] for the October–December 2025 and January–March 2026 quarters.
- During the October–December 2025 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $569 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-December cash balance of $850 billion.[2] The borrowing estimate is $21 billion lower than announced in July 2025, primarily due to the higher beginning-of-quarter cash balance, partially offset by lower projected net cash flows. Excluding the higher-than-assumed beginning-of-quarter cash balance, the current quarter borrowing estimate is $20 billion higher than announced in July.
- During the January–March 2026 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $578 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-March cash balance of $850 billion.
- During the July–September 2025 quarter, Treasury borrowed $1.058 trillion in privately-held net marketable debt and ended the quarter with a cash balance of $891 billion. In July 2025, Treasury estimated borrowing of $1.007 trillion and assumed an end-of-September cash balance of $850 billion. The $50 billion difference in privately-held net marketable borrowing resulted primarily from the higher end-of-quarter cash balance and lower net cash flows. Excluding the higher-than-assumed end-of-quarter cash balance, actual borrowing was $10 billion higher than announced in July.
Additional financing details relating to Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding will be released at 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday, November 5, 2025.
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[1] Privately-held net marketable borrowing excludes rollovers (auction “add-ons”) of Treasury securities held in the SOMA but includes financing required due to SOMA redemptions. Secondary market purchases of Treasury securities by SOMA do not directly change privately-held net marketable borrowing but, all else equal, when the securities mature and assuming the Federal Reserve does not redeem any maturing securities, would increase the amount of cash raised for a given privately-held auction size by increasing the SOMA “add-on” amount. Additionally, buybacks are not expected to significantly affect privately-held net marketable borrowing as new issuance replaces securities that are bought back.
2
| Cash Balance | July - September Quarter | October - December Quarter | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assumptions | Prior | Current | Change | Prior | Current | Change |
| Opening Balance | $457 | $457 | $0 | $850 | $891 | $41 |
| Closing Balance | $850 | $891 | $41 | $850 | $850 | $0 |
| Impact on Borrowing | $393 | $434 | $41 | $0 | -$41 | -$41 |